We make our plans and build our walls. For all our great ambitions and pride, we seek security first and foremost and sometimes even manage to feel safe. But try as we may to shield ourselves from the terrible uncertainty of life, we can find no respite. Ultimately, our fate rests with God—or, if you prefer, Nature—and we have little control over what happens to us. Such is the nature of life. 

The thought that keeps running through my mind is that these fires are going to fundamentally change things here in Los Angeles. 

We are in the midst of what will end up being the largest wildfire loss in history. Over 12,000 homes have been destroyed already and the fires are still burning. Current estimates for the total damage range from $150B to over $250B—a staggering loss.

At times, it has felt like the city is falling apart. 

It’s bad enough keeping track of the fires and evacuation orders. So, when you hear all the stories about looters and would-be arsons, your heart breaks. If there’s not a special place in hell for those who try to take advantage of moments like these, there should be. I hope anyone and everyone doing so gets caught and dealt the heavy hands of justice.

The same goes for all the price gougers out there. Never underestimate the American propensity to seek profit above all else! I’m already seeing tons of signs of gouging in the high-end rental market, where many luxury listings, which sat stale and vacant for months, have magically been re-listed at prices 50%-100% higher. My understanding is that these higher prices are clearing. That’s what happens when a neighborhood like the Palisades, literally one of the wealthiest on the planet, disappears over night.

By the way, California has a law on the books around this—anything greater than 10% of the pre-crisis price is considered price gouging—so if you see anything shady don’t be afraid to say something!

Anyway, despite all the madness, Los Angeles is coming together more than it is falling apart. Communities are rallying together to support those in need at a scale and speed that I’ve never seen, not even in the depths of the COVID crisis. This should make us all feel a little more hopeful and restore, at least, some of our faith in humanity.

While it’s too soon to know exactly how this will all play out, I know one thing: Los Angeles will never quite feel the same. Amidst the tragic loss of life and so much destruction of such an intimate character (imagine how it feels to lose a home and all your belongings), we’ve lost some of that self-assuredness that came from living in this veritable paradise where the sun always shines, this place of dreams.

Los Angeles will rebuild no doubt, will return to her splendor as the greatest flawed city on Earth, but for this generation of Angelenos this moment in time will forever mark the turning point.

Change is Coming

For one, the fires have singlehandedly saved the LA residential market from a nasty 2025. Before all this started, we were on track for a year of increasingly long listings, big price cuts, and more rental concessions. My base case was that LA would be down 20% or so. Now, we’re looking at a complete reversal and prices / rents might end growing at 20%+—a massive swing.

While this might be good for property owners (at least those who didn’t lose anything in the fire), it’s obviously bad for the city. Affordability was already a huge problem and supply tight. Well, things just got worse by over 12,000 units. Just where are these displaced people going to go? 

Then there’s whole question about what the rebuild looks like. Will people even want to rebuild? What’s the notoriously slow coastal commission going to do? Will the cities around LA county try to designate affected areas as no-build zones? Or add a bunch of new fire resiliency standards? In this town, anything could happen.

Unfortunately, while the residential market might appear strong in 2025 as a result of these dynamics, a massive insurance reckoning is coming for all Angelenos. Homeowner insurance prices were already inflating rapidly. Now, it’s going to be a total disaster, further pressuring already stressed household financials here. 

I recognize that a more expensive Los Angeles doesn’t seem like much of a departure from the norm. But change is coming from another direction too. I think this may be the moment where Angelenos turn against the political establishment.

For decades this has been a one-party town and idealistic and civically generous Angelenos have enthusiastically supported a progressive left agenda—often agreeing to new/higher taxes—on everything from the environment to homelessness and even, for a while, criminal justice reform. Their commitment has been so strong that they have continued to support the agenda even when things were obviously not working, as with homelessness.

It’s way too early to start pointing fingers but you’ll find all kinds of theories on X: LA wasn’t prepared and had given away all its fire equipment to Ukraine, LAFD was too focused on DEI initiatives, Mayor Bass was partying in Ghana and dropped the ball, or the water reservoirs were criminally empty and could’ve stopped everything…. There are even conspiracy theories about space lasers and insurance companies (who withdrew coverage from the Palisades a few months ago) knowing this was all coming.

Even though most of this is garbage, I suspect that when the ashes settle, we will discover that we really weren’t ready and that mistakes were made, many mistakes. Angelenos will never forget this disaster, that’s for sure, and many will not forgive. As such, this could be the moment the tide turns against the progressive left as Angelenos seek more competent, execution/efficiency focused centrists. 

They would be wise to do so. 

One of the things we seem to have forgotten here in Los Angeles is that it’s one thing to want to help and another to actually be able to do so. You see, to be truly compassionate to the needs our fellow citizens we need to operate from a position of strength. And strength comes not just from noble ideals and generous intent, which Angelenos possess in abundance, but also from actual power and effectiveness. Strength is about having abundant financial resources, being efficient and effective in operations, and having some foresight. In other words, everything that we are not.

The mistake we’ve made all these years is to focus too much attention on our ideals and not enough on practicality and effectiveness. Our big hearts have simply outgrown our abilities. We are awakening now from the nightmare of these fires to the harsh reality that we have become weak and the time has come to focus on rebuilding, not just our city, but our collective strength. 

How You Can Help!

There are no shortage of places to support. In this moment, Angelenos are being reminded of just what it means to be a part of a community and the response has been incredible. I cannot tell you the number of email and text chains I’m on where community members are working together to rally support for people who have lost homes and to aid firefighters and other first responders.

1. For anyone looking for a safe, legitimate place to donate money, please consider the California Community Foundation Wildfire Recovery Fund. CCF is a highly regarded local philanthropic organization with an excellent track record. Plus, it’s run by my good friend and former Nick Halaris Show podcast guest, Miguel Santana, so I know funds will be put to good use! 

2. If you or anyone you know has suffered a loss and are looking for answers to questions about insurance, wildfire legal matters, or real estate, please email me here. I’ve assembled a team of experts in these areas and we are here to answer questions, help people steer clear of any missteps, and avoid the shady actors already operating on the scene. We aren’t selling anything and this is completely free of charge. 

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