A Chilling Resurgence

My heart goes out to Israel 🇮🇱 and all those impacted by the barbaric terrorist attacks. Now is a time for all the freedom loving people of the world to stand with Israel and pray for a speedy resolution of the conflict.

I believe in peace and love but as Achilles’ once said “there can be no pacts between lions and men.” Terrorism is evil. As we seek for understanding in this moment, let’s not forget that. Let’s also not forget that there’s a fundamental difference between Palestinians seeking political aims peacefully and the terrorists of Hamas. To conflate the two is a big mistake.

This attack is not only morally and spiritually wrong, it’s also rather dumb. When has indiscriminate violence against civilians ever brought about the desired political outcome? Well, never. Indeed, throughout history terrorism has been an incredibly ineffective political approach. All it does it beget more violence.

Look, it doesn’t take a genius to forecast what’s about to happen to Hamas. It seems like they haven’t paid much attention to recent history. Does anyone remember what the Americans did after 9/11? Well, they should because there’s a nasty blueprint there for how a strong, motivated nation can effectively deal with terrorism in the modern age. And for would-be terrorists, it doesn’t look good. Just ask Al Qaeda. Israel is about to whip-up a devastating and violent storm, the regional version of America’s Global War on Terror, and in the end, Hamas will retreat into the shadows or be completely destroyed. I don’t think it’s a question whether the Israeli’s will win or not but rather whether they can do so without becoming the very thing they seek to destroy. This proved very difficult for the Americans in the GWOT.

These attacks highlight an important point about the responsibilities of citizenship and the power inherent in a society imbued with a sense of civic virtue. It’s been so inspiring to hear the stories of the hundreds of thousands of ordinary Israeli citizens, young and old, answering the call and reporting for duty. Democratic societies around the world should take note and start working on the service-oriented policies that can create this kind of civic commitment. Here in this country, a year of mandatory service, whether in the military or peace corps or some kind of community service, could do a lot of good in reestablish the bonds of fellowship among Americans.

While it’s too soon to forecast how this will all play out, one thing is certain, this is very problematic for the teetering global economy. This conflict introduces yet more uncertainty into an already uncertain world. Remember, the war in Ukraine is still on-going, China’s economy is sputtering, and we’re about to have the craziest Presidential election season ever here in the US. The potential for a geopolitical accident and the escalation of conflict hasn’t been this high in a long time. In other words, risk premiums are going-up in price. Bad news for asset prices.

At the same time, we cannot forget that the inflation scare is far from over. We’re still a way from the Fed’s 2% target and oil is almost certainly going higher from here. It looks like we really are in for a period of higher for longer when it comes to rates. This is very bad news for the real estate industry and for all the heavily indebted corporations and nations around the world. Given debt levels around the world, a high rates regime materially increases the odds of a financial accident.

Financial Autonomy

We reached a bit of a milestone this week. Not only did we release the 25^th episode of The Nick Halaris Show, but we also now have over 5,000 Profit+ subscribers! This is both humbling and inspiring. In a world full of distraction and options, I am incredibly honored to have your attention and support. Thank you all so much for being here!

Something came up in the podcast episode this week that I think is worth emphasizing. When Jamie Gruber and I were discussing his journey from employee to entrepreneur we started talking about the idea of financial freedom and both agreed that it is a bit of a misnomer. For it’s not freedom that people are really after but rather autonomy.

Why?

Look, for someone stuck in an unfulfilling job it’s only natural to wish to never have to work again. This is the fundamental basis for the mythology around financial freedom. But ultimately, it’s a false notion because people don’t really want to “not work.” Of course, there are plenty of financially free people who think they don’t want to work (e.g. think spoiled trust fund kids). However, they are just deluding themselves. If you look at the underlying psychology of human flourishing, it’s clear that people not only want to work but also need to do so. Life imposes a moral imperative for work. Just to stay alive is a kind of work, right? And to flourish, we have to find work that is both meaningful and fulfilling.  Purpose is what we are after.

When we seek financial freedom what we really want is financial autonomy. If work is necessary, it’s best to have a choice in the matter. We happen to live in an age where something like choice is really valuable. We have the most diverse and dynamic economy in recorded history and financial autonomy dramatically increases the chances that you are going to be able to work on something you actually care about and value.

So, by all means, pursue financial autonomy but, in the process, don’t lose sight of what you are really after. Prioritize meaning over money. Find work that is fulfilling. And don’t get caught-up just chasing money for money’s sake.

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