4 Big Surprises for 2024

When I set out to write this week’s article what I had in mind was one of those fun (albeit standard) year-end articles you often see—something like “7 Big Risks to Keep on Your Radar for 2024.” But after putting together my list, I couldn’t help but feel that it was all kind of boring. 

In case you were wondering, here was my list:

1. Escalation of the Scale of Violence in Ukraine

2. Escalation of the War in the Middle East

3. A Contested US Election

4. The Return of Inflation

5. A Hard Landing for the Economy

6. A Border Crisis in the US

   &

7. A Global Real Estate Crash

To be fair, these are all legitimate risks and things we should take seriously in thinking about 2024. But are they really all that insightful or interesting? Look, there are probably thousands of year-end articles and listicles in production where these 7 are going to make an appearance. As such, I decided to challenge myself to do better. 

So, without further ado:

1. AI Surprises to the Upside

Judging by the stock market, AI feels like an optimistic story of unprecedented proportions. In the face of the most challenging rates environment in several decades and general economic uncertainty, the AI hype train has fueled another epic run-up in big tech stocks. But beyond the ticker tape, there’s a decidedly negative undertone to the AI narrative. You get everything from “AI is going to take all of our jobs” to “we will soon be either fighting or serving our AI robot overlords.” While AI might evolve in these negative directions—obviously, I hope it does not—it’s equally possible that it evolves in decidedly more positive ways. For AI has the potential to usher in the long-awaited for productivity boom and might just save us from an unsustainable debt spiral. 

Remember, at the core, GDP growth is nothing more than the sum of population growth and productivity growth. And since people aren’t having that many babies and immigration politics are a disaster, our only hope is productivity. What I’ve seen so far from AI gives me hope. These tools are not so much job destroyers as they are productivity boosters. Armed with AI as it exists today, a standard knowledge worker can just get a lot more done with the same amount of time. Perhaps, this will be the story of 2024.

2. A move to the center in big city local politics

For decades, local elections in big cities have been dominated by the left and, in recent years, even the far left. In places like LA, SF, and NYC left-leaning Democrats who self-identify as socialists have been winning key seats on an agenda that is anti-business, pro-regulation, and often frustratingly sanctimonious. They’ve been busy pursuing a hodgepodge of reform policies, which while not overtly anti-growth, end-up amounting as such. 

However, things are changing. Driven largely by the backlash to experiments in criminal justice reform and fatigue with the homelessness crisis, urban voters might look to alternative candidates who are more center left or maybe even center right on these particular issues. This has the potential to completely change the dynamic in city halls across the country.

Whatever our politics, we have to remember that this is a good thing. Democracies function best when there are competing forces that are strong enough to force a compromise. As much as we may want our political party to achieve a complete victory, the truth is that democracies work better when there’s legitimate competition. It’s debate and dialogue that brings the best ideas to the fore, especially if it’s among rational and intelligent people. 

So, however much you may dislike the other party, remember that two is better than one when it comes to democratic function. Don’t believe me? Remember, the best example of a one-party state in the world today is authoritarian China. Is that really what we are after? No way.  

3. A mild year in terms of extreme weather
events and natural disasters 

We’ve become so accustomed to extreme weather events and natural disasters that we’ve grown to just expect them. What if they just don’t happen in 2024 or don’t happen as much? How will that feel? Perhaps this is just wishful thinking on my part but Nature has a way of surprising us 

By the way, this doesn’t make me a climate change denier, I’m just offering up a possibility here. And who wouldn’t want to get a respite from the growing furies of Nature for a year?

In addition to immeasurable benefits to humanity from less suffering in the world, a mild year could alleviate the crazy upside inflationary pressure on insurance prices, which would be great for real estate, and help governments around the world who’ve been running bigger and bigger deficits paying for disaster relief efforts. Let’s hope I’m right about this one!

4. An artist produces a work of staggering genius that enriches life around the world and propels our global culture to a greater understanding of the truth

Isn’t this what we are really after anyway?  On some level, it feels like civilization was basically invented to create the space for artistic discovery.  While we tend to focus on things like power and money, we cannot forget that we organize and commune not just for security and prosperity but also for truth and beauty. We seem to be driven by some generative and creative force that simply demands that we develop behaviors and social structures that foster artistic output. This is a universal truth of the human condition and what gives us hope that there’s a point to all this living after all. 

Think about it: right now, there’s an author writing or a filmmaker dreaming or a musician practicing, who’s going to produce something that will change the world. If that thought doesn’t make you feel like life is worth living, I don’t know what will. 

So even after taking into account all 7 of my big risks, we have at least 4 good reasons to go into this holiday season with some optimism. Of course, we cannot close our eyes to the dangers in front of us or ignore the suffering around us. As I write, Russians and Ukrainians are locked in a brutal conflict and Israel is pushing hard to root out Hamas. Companies, investors, and property owners are struggling in the face of higher interest rates and, in some cases, deteriorating fundamentals. People around the world are suffering from addiction, mental health issues, and homelessness. Yes, we are awash with problems and issues. 

But here at Profit+, armed with the tools of possibility, emboldened by our noble missions, and empowered with the tactics of enlightened living, we recognize that we have the choice and the opportunity to see through the fog of uncertainty and stay busy changing ourselves so we can change the world.  

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